Gulf war shadow: India’s $11 billion mobile phone export …

India’s booming mobile phone exports are vulnerable as analysts project a $2 billion-3 billion loss due to the conflict in the Gulf region. EMS companies, heavily reliant on West Asian markets, are particularly exposed to trade disruption and reduced demand.

NEW DELHI: India’s steadily rising mobile phone exports, which generated $11 billion in revenue in the first six months of the current fiscal, are expected to take a multi-billion-dollar hit from a prolonged impact of the Iran war on consumption, imports and freight transit in the Gulf region. Executives, analysts and brokerage firms estimate a loss of $2 billion-3 billion on India’s electronics exports, largely because electronics manufacturing services (EMS) companies export a sizeable quantity of mobile phones to the Gulf area—a key trade and consumption hub.

Mobile phones are among the top five most-impacted commodities as a result of the Gulf nations and the West Asia region being directly affected by Israel and the US’s war on Iran, analysts Suvodeep Rakshit and Swarupjit Palit at brokerage firm Kotak Institutional Equities wrote in a note to investors on 6 March. Mobile phone exports to the Gulf and West Asia rose to $3.1 billion in FY25, accounting for 12% of the country’s net electronics exports, the analysts said, citing India's commerce ministry data.

If the conflict continues, the entire $3 billion in export value may be wiped out in the next fiscal year, the Kotak analysts said. To circumvent this impact, EMS companies may ramp up exports to other regions, including the US, the UK, China, Japan, the Netherlands, Germany and Mexico. Mobile phone exports from India have grown steadily. Electronics, driven by the Centre’s manufacturing incentives and exports push, is India’s third most-shipped out commodity, the ministry of electronics and IT said on 27 October.

Data published by the ministry showed that from April to September 2025, India exported $11 billion of mobile phones—50% of its $22 billion net electronics exports. At a projected average of 10%, the loss of $2 billion-3 billion from India’s electronics export revenue appears on track if the conflict continues through the year. The disruption, analysts from Kotak and Elara Capital said, could hit Foxconn Technology Group (which includes Bharat FIH, Rising Stars and Yuzhan Technology India) and Tata Electronics, both of which are privately held and are contract manufacturers for Apple, as well as Dixon Technologies, India’s largest publicly listed mobile maker.

Samsung India’s in-house manufacturing and exports operations, as well as local companies Lava and Micromax’s parent Bhagwati Products could also be impacted. “Global mobile phones demand had already been declining, hitting Dixon’s December quarter earnings,” said a senior official closely aware of the developments at Dixon. Dixon’s operating quarterly revenue dropped 28% to ₹10,672 crore in December as a result of slowing sales.

The West Asia crisis could prove to be a double whammy for Dixon. Emails sent to Dixon and Tata Electronics, the larger by revenue, did not receive any responses. Apple, though, is unlikely to face a major disruption at its India assembly lines, which are used to cater to the domestic market and customers in the US, a person familiar with the iPhone maker’s export operations said. Samsung India, which runs what it claims is “its largest mobile manufacturing factory” in Uttar Pradesh’s Greater Noida, may be affected, analysts said.

A person close to developments in Samsung's export operations said that for now, the company's exports from India are not hit as their primary overseas destinations are the European and North American markets. “The impact will be the most on companies that export directly to the Gulf and West Asia markets to sell devices there,” said Harshit Kapadia, vice-president at brokerage firm, Elara Capital.

“Most mobile shipments travel by air or pass through the Suez Canal. While this will keep most of the overall industry safe as they export to other regions, there could be some impact for those particularly exporting mobile phones for sales to the area.” For now, companies such as Syrma SGS, which aren’t exposed heavily to mobile phones, believe they’re mostly safe. “Our net exports to the region are less than ₹10 crore for the full year in total and we’re not expecting any material impact as a result of the conflict,” said Jasbir Singh Gujral, managing director of the Mumbai-based EMS company.

“Syrma is not in the mobile phone manufacturing business at all, and our growth guidances remain intact.” The company primarily manufactures industrial electronics, automotive equipment and laptops. It reported ₹3,836 crore in revenue in FY25 and consolidated operating revenue of ₹3,354 crore in the first nine months of the current fiscal. However, Gujral added that there could be a passive impact of the Iran war that may trickle down to the industry in the long run.

“Air cargo services from the Middle East airlines are a longstanding partnership for us. Because of the current disruption, we may need to consider airlines in Europe to divert export shipments through, which may lead to a cost impact of exports. This, though, will mostly be borne by our clients, and will not affect our top and bottom lines,” he said.

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